Raising the cost of a pack of cigarettes, whether because of taxes or price hikes, has long been associated with lower consumption. The new paper Differential Responsiveness to Cigarette Prices by U.S. Adults Who Do and Do Not Use Cannabis by Tingting Yao and her UCSF colleagues shows that cigarette smokers who currently use cannabis are twice as likely to reduce the number of cigarettes they smoked per day than cigarette smokers who do not currently use cannabis.
Tobacco smoking and cannabis use in the United States have gone in opposite directions in recent years. Between 2004 and 2019, the smoking rate decreased from 24.5% to 16.6%. At the same time, cannabis use increased from 5.8% to 11.6%, and the percentage of people who smoked both tobacco and cannabis rose from 3.6% to 4.5%.
States with higher cigarette prices generally have lower smoking rates. As of Aug. 1, New York, Maryland, Rhode Island, and DC have the highest state cigarette excise taxes in the country, while prices remain comparatively low in Missouri, Georgia, North Dakota, and North Carolina. Among the lower-cost states, cannabis is only legal in Missouri.
Yao and colleagues used data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health from 2004 to 2019 as well as state-level cigarette pricing data. They compared cigarette price sensitivity between adults who use cannabis with those who did not use it and estimated the change in demand by using standard economic techniques. The analysis did not consider vaping because data on e-cigarettes did not become available until midway through the study period.
Here is the abstract:
Introduction: Cigarettes and cannabis are commonly co-used, but little research has examined how cannabis use relates to cigarette price responsiveness. This study compares the price elasticity of cigarette demand between U.S. adults who currently use cannabis and those who do not.
Methods: We analyzed cross-sectional data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (2004-2019; annual mean unweighted n = 50 000 adults aged 18+). A two-part econometric model of cigarette demand was estimated separately for adults who currently use cannabis and those who do not, including a multivariable logistic regression for smoking participation and a multivariable linear regression for smoking intensity.
Results: From 2004 to 2019, smoking prevalence declined from 24.5% to 16.6%, while cannabis use increased from 5.8% to 11.6%, and co-use rose from 3.6% to 4.5%. Among cannabis users, price elasticity was statistically significant at -0.20 for smoking participation, -0.27 for smoking intensity, and -0.47 for total demand—indicating that a 1% increase in cigarette prices is associated with a 0.20%, 0.27%, and 0.47% decrease in smoking participation, smoking intensity and overall cigarette demand. Among noncannabis users, price elasticity was also statistically significant at -0.23, -0.13, and -0.36. Those who currently use cannabis were significantly more price-responsive in reducing smoking participation and smoking intensity than those who do not.
Conclusions: Higher cigarette prices are associated with lower smoking prevalence, intensity, and total demand for both subgroups. However, adult smokers who currently use cannabis are more price-sensitive, suggesting that tobacco taxes may be particularly effective in reducing smoking among this subgroup. Implications: Both cannabis-using and non-cannabis-using smokers are significantly responsive to cigarette prices, with higher prices associated with in lower levels of smoking initiation and smoking intensity as well as a higher quit rate. However, the cannabis-using smokers are significantly more price responsive than non-cannabis-using smokers. These results suggest that increasing cigarette prices, such as through taxation, is effective in reducing cigarette smoking among U.S. adults, especially those who currently use cannabis.
The full cite is: Tingting Yao, Hai-Yen Sung, Lela Chu, Joanne Spetz, Wendy Max, Differential Responsiveness to Cigarette Prices by U.S. Adults Who Do and Do Not Use Cannabis, Nicotine & Tobacco Research, 2025;, ntaf205, https://doi.org/10.1093/ntr/ntaf205. It is available here.
The UCSF press release is here.
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